Saturday, January 17, 2009

Now Don't Be Sad, 'Cause 3 Out Of 4 Ain't Bad

I didn't hit my four team parlay, but I made 3 of 4. Counting my advice to Learned Foot earlier this year, this puts me at 12-7 (9-5 when Learned Foot asked for my picks in week 5 and 0-1 last week). That's a hit rate of over 63%, which would break the bank in Las Vegas. Since I'm on a bit of a roll, I will prognosticate the conference championships. Thanks again to USA Today:

My themes this week is teams that have been there before defeating hot young (except for Kurt Warner) teams:

Philly -3 1/2 over Arizona: Remember how Arizona was considered a joke two weeks ago? They put together a nice run agaist teams with ok defenses and now they are considered legit. There is a reason people didn't give them respect in the past and it will show up sooner or later. I'm betting sooner, as the Eagles defense is smothering, though somewhat better against the run than the pass. They may give up a few big plays to Larry Fitzgerald, but he won't absolutely destroy them the way he did the Panthers and Falcons.

Pittsburgh -5 1/2 over Baltimore. 5 1/2 points in this game is like 7 1/2 in a game with regular defenses. Still, you have an overachieving team with a rookie quarterback on the road in potentially bad weather. The Steelers are playing their best football of the year and the Ravens know they were lucky to win last week.

Good gambling!

2 Comments:

Blogger John F Not Kerry said...

It's nice to see the lack of love the Cardinals are getting from just about everybody. I know they are professionals and shouldn't need any extra motivation, but I would love to see a Cardinal win, if only because I hate the Eagles and love Kurt Warner (in a sports fan way). And I love to see conventional (herd) wisdom stood on its head.

6:19 PM  
Blogger John F Not Kerry said...

"There is a reason people didn't give them respect in the past and it will show up sooner or later. I'm betting sooner, as the Eagles defense is smothering, though somewhat better against the run than the pass. They may give up a few big plays to Larry Fitzgerald, but he won't absolutely destroy them the way he did the Panthers and Falcons."

Mmmmm. Tasty words.

6:02 PM  

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